20 March 2006

Wily Mo Pena- BP Projections

I'm thinking of posting my 2006 Pre-Season Predictions on Wednesday, just as a heads up. Either way, it'll likely be up by the end of the week. But don't hold me to that.

Not sure when we'll see Wily in Sox camp, but I'm guessing soon, as he's had all day to get there, and the Reds/ Red Sox have camps close to one another. If you're interested, there's currently a nice conversation going on over at ARSFIPT, where Jere's Mom is lobbing potshots at me! A published author! Seriously though, check it out. Nearly 40 posts of debate-team fun.

Either way, perusing my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2006, here's Wily Mo Pena, his player card, comps, projections and report to digest:

WILY MO PENA | 24 YR | 6'3" | 215
_________BA______OBP_______SLG_______HR________EqA________VORP
2004___.259_____.316______.527_______26_______.274________18.8
2005___.254_____.304______.492_______19_______.266_________9.5
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2006___.282_____.345______.558_______25_______.292________24.1

Breakout: 54% | Improve: 70% | Collapse: 11% | Attrition: 27%
Comparables: Jesse Barfield, Willie Stargell, Pete Incaviglia, Frank Howard, Charlie Spikes



Pena managed to tread water in 2005. That's not fatal for a 24-year old with Pena's power potential, but playing in only 428 games (combined minors and majors) in 2002-05 because the Reds wouldn't solve their outfield logjam could substantially retard his development, and Pena still makes the kinds of fundamental mistakes that h should have left behind in Double-A. It's also hindered him from improving against RHPs, who can often get him to chase outside breaking pitches. After adding 30 lbs of muscle in the past two years, Pena appears to have lost some of his range in the outfield, but he'll need to keep himself toned up; in 2005, Pena was on the DL for more than a month after straining his left quad. A full season in the 2006 lineup with 600-plus plate appearances should show the world what Pena can really do.


Here are Theo's comments on Wily Mo Pena, from WEEI today.

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